No one can give you a dependable steel price forecast for 2026 or 2027, and any single number you find should be treated as one analyst's opinion. What you can do is watch the handful of things that actually move Canadian steel prices: trade measures with fixed review and expiry dates, scrap and raw material costs, the Canadian dollar and construction demand. As of October 2026, the biggest scheduled event is the expiry of Canada's steel tariff rate quota program on June 27, 2027, unless it is extended again.
This post explains where forecasts come from, which signals matter for structural steel and rebar buyers in Ontario, and how steel tariffs and surtaxes are calculated. For what has already happened to prices, see our post on how much steel prices have increased. We don't publish prices or forecasts; for your project, ask for a current quote.
Why steel price forecasts disagree
Steel forecasts are hard for the same reason weather forecasts beyond a week are hard: too many moving parts. A forecast has to guess at demand from construction and manufacturing, raw material costs, mill capacity and outages, currency moves and, since 2025, trade policy decisions made by governments on short notice.
Trade policy is the part that breaks most forecasts. The Canadian market in 2025 and 2026 was shaped by US tariffs on Canadian steel, Canadian surtaxes on US steel, and Canadian import quotas on steel from other countries. Each of those was announced, changed or extended within weeks. A forecast written before a policy change is out of date the day the change is announced.
There is also a mismatch between what forecasts cover and what you buy. Most published outlooks track a benchmark such as US hot-rolled coil or global steel demand. A contractor in Ontario buys beams, HSS, plate or rebar, cut, drilled, welded and delivered. The mill price is only one part of that, so even an accurate benchmark forecast tells you the direction of pressure, not your quote.
Where steel forecasts come from
If you're reading a "steel price forecast 2026" or "2027" article, it usually draws on one of these sources:
| Source | What it tells you | Limits |
|---|---|---|
| Futures markets (for example, hot-rolled coil futures listed by CME Group) | What traders expect a US benchmark to be on future dates | A US flat-rolled index, not Canadian long products like beams or rebar |
| Bank and commodity research outlooks | An analyst's view of prices over the next year or two | Assumptions differ; often behind paywalls; revised frequently |
| World Steel Association outlooks | Expected steel demand by region | Demand, not price |
| Mill price announcements | What a mill intends to charge on upcoming orders | Short horizon; not every increase sticks |
| Statistics Canada Industrial Product Price Index | What Canadian producer prices actually did | Backward-looking, published with a lag |
The most useful habit is to read several of these together and look at direction, not a headline number. If futures, mill announcements and the producer price index are all moving the same way, that tells you more than any single forecast.
The signals to watch through 2027
These are the factors that move steel prices in Canada, and where to keep an eye on them.
Trade policy dates. As of October 2026:
- Canada's tariff rate quotas on many imported steel products were extended to June 27, 2027. Imports above the quota pay a surtax of 50 percent of the value for duty. The US and Mexico are exempt. Watch for an announcement on whether the program is extended, changed or allowed to lapse.
- Canada's surtax on US-origin steel took effect March 13, 2025 at 25 percent, and was raised to 50 percent for certain steel goods effective September 8, 2026.
- US tariffs on Canadian steel remain in place. Any change there affects how much Canadian mills sell at home, which affects domestic supply.
The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) publishes a customs notice for each of these measures, and the Department of Finance announces changes. Those two sources are more reliable than any news summary.
Scrap and raw materials. Much of the long-product steel made in North America (rebar, beams, channels) comes from electric arc furnaces that melt scrap. When scrap prices rise, mill costs follow. Iron ore and coal matter more for blast furnace producers and flat-rolled products like plate and coil.
The Canadian dollar. A lot of steel trades in US dollars. A weaker Canadian dollar makes imported steel cost more in Canadian terms and gives domestic mills room to raise prices.
Construction demand. Housing starts, infrastructure spending and large industrial projects all pull on the same supply. Busy years tighten mill and fabricator schedules; slow years soften them.
Energy costs. Melting and rolling steel uses a lot of electricity and gas. Energy price swings feed into mill costs with a delay.
For rebar specifically, the same factors apply with some differences in which mills and trade measures matter most. Our post on rebar price trends covers that side.
How a steel tariff or surtax is calculated
"Steel tariff calculation" searches usually come from someone pricing an import or trying to understand why imported steel costs more than it used to. Here is how it works in Canada, based on the CBSA customs notices for the steel measures. This is a general explanation; an importer should use a licensed customs broker.
- Classify the goods. Every product has a tariff classification under the Harmonized System. Hot-rolled shapes, plate, HSS, rebar and fabricated structural steel all fall under different headings, and the classification decides which measures apply.
- Establish the country of origin. Origin is decided under customs rules; for steel it usually points to where the steel was produced, not where it was shipped from. Origin decides whether a quota, the US surtax or another surtax applies.
- Determine the value for duty. This is normally based on the price paid for the goods, adjusted as set out in the Customs Act.
- Apply the customs duty rate. Many basic steel products carry a free most-favoured-nation rate in Canada, so the duty itself is often nil. The surtax is the part that changes the cost.
- Apply any surtax. A surtax is a percentage of the value for duty, calculated separately from the customs duty. For every 100 units of value for duty, a 25 percent surtax adds 25 and a 50 percent surtax adds 50. Under the quota program, goods within the quota pay no surtax and goods over it pay 50 percent. The orders contain rules for cases where more than one surtax could apply.
- Calculate GST. GST is charged on the value for duty plus the duty and the surtax, so the surtax is taxed too.
Two practical points follow. Fabricated steel can be classified differently from raw shapes, and separate surtaxes apply to certain steel derivative goods and to some steel originating in China. And because quotas are allocated over periods, the same product from the same country can be quota-free one month and surtaxed the next.
What a forecast means for a fabricated steel quote
If you're buying fabricated steel rather than importing raw material, the forecast matters less than it seems. A fabricated price includes shop labour, shop drawings, connections, finishing such as priming or galvanizing, delivery and often installation. Those costs don't swing with the steel market. Statistics Canada's index for fabricated structural metal moved much less than the mill product indexes through 2025 and 2026.
What does follow the market is how long a supplier will hold a price. When mill prices are moving, quotes tend to have shorter validity, and longer contracts may carry material escalation clauses. Read those terms before you compare totals. Our guide to structural steel price per tonne explains what sits inside a fabricated price, and estimating steel tonnage early helps you size your exposure before the drawings are final.
Planning a 2026 or 2027 project around the uncertainty
You can't forecast your way out of a volatile market, but you can make a project less sensitive to it:
- Put the policy dates in your schedule. If your steel order falls near June 2027, find out whether the quota program has been extended before you lock in a budget.
- Ask where the steel comes from. Domestic mill material isn't subject to import surtaxes. Ask your supplier, and look at the country of melt on the mill test certificate.
- Get quotes close to the order date and confirm how long they're held.
- Finish the design early so suppliers price real tonnage, not allowances.
- Phase deliveries to match the schedule rather than storing steel on site.
- Carry a material contingency on long projects, and understand which way any escalation clause can move.
Getting a current steel price
Forecasts and tariff notices tell you which way the pressure is pushing; only a quote tells you what your job costs. Send your drawings through our quote form for a free take-off and price on structural steel and rebar. We prepare shop drawings in-house, fabricate with CWB certified welding, can prime or galvanize to suit, and deliver across the GTA and Ontario with phased deliveries available. See our steel products for what we supply.
Frequently asked questions
Will steel prices go up in 2027?
Nobody can say reliably. Canadian steel prices in 2026 have been driven mostly by trade policy, and several of the key measures come up for review or expiry in 2027. Watch those dates, scrap prices and the Canadian dollar, and get quotes close to when you will order.
Who publishes steel price forecasts?
Banks, commodity research firms and industry analysts publish price outlooks, futures exchanges show what traders expect for some products, and the World Steel Association publishes demand outlooks. They often disagree, and most focus on US or global benchmarks rather than fabricated steel delivered in Ontario.
How is a steel surtax calculated in Canada?
A surtax is a percentage of the value for duty of the imported goods. It is calculated separately from any customs duty, and GST is then charged on a value that includes the duty and the surtax. Which surtax applies depends on the product's classification and country of origin.
Do Canadian steel surtaxes apply to steel made in Canada?
No. They apply to imported steel. Domestic steel is still affected indirectly, because limiting imports changes supply and demand in the Canadian market.
